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The Basketball Game Video Analysis
by Brian Denver, USA
- June 15, 2002
Anticipate the next action: When you
can anticipate the next pass, you are thinking as an analyst, you are as near to the
players as you can be.
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Where the player passes the ball? It depends on
the following factors: what type of ball handler he is, which teammates are on the floor,
what type of offense the team is running, and which is the opponent's defense type.
Against a zone defense, we know, the player cuts but don't screens. In man-to-man, he cuts
and screens; so, for example we can see what type of defense and offense are being played.
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Watch the action away from the ball: Watch the action away from the ball on the
weak side and notice the backpick being set upon the alley-ooper's defender, or watch the
post action . That's a good rule for live games, but on a TV game (see Analysis by means of
Video ), the camera usually follows the ball: but most views are taken from the side
and good half-court view of the proceedings -weakside screens, pushing and shoving under
the basket and so on -.
Not only the star: Avoid the central team-star vision, many other great players are
in the game, you may miss something and your final analysis report must be a global one,
more than a "Kobe Bryant Report".
Filling the data for a personal report, focus on that player for five or six straight
trips down the court: does he hustle back on defense?, does he "take a series
off" on defense once in a while?
But don't forget the star at all... Who is going to shoot the ball is not a secret, but
put your attention on how he creates open shots for himself !
And sometimes, the star is not the team's best player, but that guy with the hot hand that
evening. Try to keep an eye on him, and analyze whether he's doing anything differently
the next game.
Follow Stats: Usually a game
Analyst keeps stats by himself more than rely on the television statisticians and follows
more than the score, as points off turnovers, offensive rebounding, points in the
paint, and bench scoring.
A complete section about Stats is written in this Site at The Box Score,
meanwhile the complete eBA method
of keeping stats is developed at Formulas.
But talking about stats, out of techniques, we must watch the officials. Officials can
dictate the pace of the game. Neither team can find a rhythm when the officials are
calling a foul on every possession.
A game-analyst must put attention on the officials as they analyze the game stats:
officials can take a team out of its offense or defense by calling a game too tight
(whistles too many fouls) or too loose. Some teams may play more physically than ever with
such a loose kind of officials.
Analysis Insider Tips -or "the game analyst rules"-:
Defense check out: Checking out the defense type of both teams will foretell us
what type of game it will be. The game analyst must look for a possible great one-on-one
player and its behavior against a possible opponent great defensive stopper when playing
man-to-man defense.
Offensive rebounding control: The team that controls the rebounds usually controls
the game. We must analyze the rebound control by looking for tendencies: if the rebounds
are taken by specific players; if the guards are taking offensive rebs (if so, that team
is taking quite a few outside shots, because longs shots have longs rebounds).
The Tempo: Pay attention to tempo. The team you are analyzing or scouting take a
defensive rebound: are they running, or are the players slowing down ? What tempo is with
each of the playmakers ? May be problems with half-court matchups ? May be a runner player
fighting with a sore ankle ? This is the moment, we analyze the transition game of each
team.
After a Time-out: What happens after a time-out: Has the coach changed defenses or
a specific man-to-man assignment? Is the offense running a set play for one particular
player? The game analyst must discover fixed changes -of players or tactics-
occurred at
fundamental time-outs such as at the last moments of each quarter.
It is said that one sign of a good coach is that his team scores on its first possession
after a time-out. The coach can see a breach in the opponent's defense and can take
advantage of the crack with a special play that leads to a matchup and a score.
Early Turnovers: Are a lot of turnovers occurring early in the game? The game
analyst must identify if it is a regular beginning of that team we are scouting. Is either
team capitalizing on those turnovers? Those turnover are in effect extra possessions. So,
what with the points off turnovers?
Free throw shooting: We must analyze the first minutes FT%. Free throw shooting is
usually contagious. If the team shoots well early in the game, the players may gain
confidence late in the game at crunch time. Like so many variables in a
Basketball game,
missed free throws earlier in the game often foreshadow what will happen at the end.
Injuries: How is an injury influencing the game? Whether suffered prior to the game
or during the contest, an injury to a key player can dramatically alter his team's style
of play.
eBA
Method of analysis refers particularly to this case in the eBA System Area
Halftime adjustments: The first five minutes of the third quarter often dictate the
rest of the game. During that time frame (analyzed separately at eBA Method), each
coach wants to make adjustments to take control of the game or get back in the game -
whatever the case may be - as early as possible so that he can build his team's
confidence.
Substitution patterns: A team that substitutes often tells the
analyst one of the
following patterns:
1 - Our bench is deep.
2 - Our starters are not that much better than the bench.
3 - We plan on running a lot and hope to fatigue our opponent.
The game analyst must observe what's happening and then deduce why it's happening.
Bench points: Bench points, like offensive rebounding, usually dictate the winner.
The eBA System see eBA System Area for
references) charts the points of each player in a plus-minus statistic report, that gives
the coach the performance of each player at each time frame of the game.
A scoring run: Who went on a scoring run and why?
A run normally is the by-product of good defense by one team and turnovers by the other.
The last ball: Most coaches want to have the ball in the hands of their best
players at the end of the game. Who has the stars for the stretch run? Who are those
shooters? They aren't always the top players and a good game analyst must look for the
constants.
The key matchups: Watching for the key matches was probably more important for the
analysis when man-to-man defense was exclusive; but however the matchup continues heavily
impacting the outcome to the game.
FG% differential: What is the field goal percentage differential? A team should
have a lead equal to its field percentage differential (see Formulas for references
about eBA Method).
We are leading by two points and shooting 14% better from the field than our opponent:
that may tell us that our opponents are probably rebounding better or scoring more points
off turnovers. According to that rule we should be up 14 points, not 2.
To Be Continued at The Basketball Analysis Method
with "Introduction
to the Basketball Analysis"
and Updated at the eBA Basketball
Statistics Analysis System - The Project.
All the terminology is analyzed at the Global
Basketball Directory
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