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For the last two seasons, Basketball Prospectus has been at the cutting edge of the NBA's statistical revolution, exploring how teams win and why as well as integrating plenty of old-fashioned tape and first-hand observation to analyze players and teams.
Now, we're following in the footsteps of our predecessors at Baseball Prospectus and our college counterparts by providing that same level of insight in book form.....
Click on 'Read more...' to read the complete review and see the video !
"... This book came as a real surprise to me. I'm not a huge basketball stats junkie, but I soon found out quickly that you don't have to be to enjoy this book. For any fan of NBA basketball this is an essential read. It has detailed commentary on every player in the league, which are not only insightful and informational but also very interesting to read!
My favorite team, the LA Lakers are covered in such detail, that I learned new things about players I've been watching for years. I really like the projected stats for players for the upcoming NBA season. It's really interesting to see which players are going to have breakout seasons and which players are going to decline.
There is also some good stuff I've used for my fantasy draft. There is a round by round draft order that helped me draft well after the first four rounds.
Basically, as a fan of basketball this books sheds light beyond what we see on the court and does so in a fun and enjoyable fashion. Highly recommended. ..." Alix Kolar (Los Angeles, CA, USA)
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"... Doolittle and Pelton capture the thrills and frills of the upcoming pro-basketball season in this soon-to-be classic, Pro Basketball Prospectus 2009-2010. Basketball Prospectus serves as a meaningful guide for both the avid fan and the novice. Pelton, a pioneer in the usage of APBR metrics in professional basketball, uses expert analysis to assess the viability for success of each franchise. Alongside the statistics is an upbeat narrative giving the reader an inside-look into the league. The book uses both trends, expert opinion and a keen knowledge of team personnel to forecast success.
Basketball Prospectus is a must-read for industry-insiders, sports writers, avid fans and those wanting to learn more about the promise and excitement of this year's pro-basketball season. ..." David Sykes (Atlanta, Georgia, USA)
About the Authors
Bradford Doolittle
Bradford Doolittle has been with The Star since the fall of 2002, working in various capacities in the sports department. Call him the section's utility player -- copy Editor, page designer, statistics editor, baseball columnist. He's the Chone Figgins of Sports Daily, though he has aspirations of becoming the Bert Campaneris.
He's written on baseball for The Star for five years under the "Stat Guy" moniker. He's also written various features for the paper. Brad writes a regular NBA column for Basketball Prospectus and his freelance work has appeared in outlets such as SI.com, Deadspin, The Hardball Times, ESPN.com and "108".
Despite his interest in statistics, Brad considers himself more of a writer than a mathematician and, thus, is an appropriate blog partner for Martin Manley. When it comes to sports commentary, however, Brad feels it is essential that opinions be backed up by sound logic and empirical evidence. That'll be the basis for his work at Upon Further Review.
Brad grew up in a small town in Iowa and attended the University of Missouri. He lives in midtown Kansas City with his wife, Amy, and his erratically-behaved dog, Hunter.
Interview With Bradford Doolittle
"When it comes to sports, though, I don't know how you do credible analysis and/or commentary without using lots of statistics. And if you're using statistics, you might as well use the right ones."
Bradford Doolittle, Basketball Prospectus & The Kansas City Star
"... How long have you been working at Basketball Prospectus?
My first piece for B-Pro was a few days after the start of the 2007-08 season. So I guess I'm not an O.B. (Original Basketball Prospectus author) like Kevin Pelton.
I'm aware that you also still write for The Kansas City Star. How long have you been writing for The Star? What type of content do you currently cover?
I've been with The Star for a little over six years. I do a variety of different things for them, both on the writing and editorial side. Writing wise, I've covered everything from Northern League baseball to Arena League football. Most KC readers know me from two things: My weekly calendar column and my 'Stat Guy' series that runs during the baseball season, which is a column that uses a lot of stats -- just like it sounds.
Lately, most of my time has been taken up with my Star sports blog Upon Further Review (uponfurtherreview.kansascity.com). It's a general KC sports blog with an analytical slant. My partner there is Martin Manley, which long-time NBA fans might remember from his Basketball Heaven books in the late '80s/early '90s.
Clearly you have an interest in statistics, given your affiliation with Basketball Prospectus. It's stated in your bio on The Star's website that you consider yourself more of a writer than a mathematician. Why's that? Do you feel that sentiment will ever change?
I have no formal training in statistics. I've always been good with numbers, mostly thanks to playing lots of Statis-Pro basketball when I was kid. For the same reason, I got into spreadsheets when I was in college. Believe it or not, that led to me serving a six-year sentence as an accountant.
I consider myself more of a writer because I majored in English, have a big library of books (that I've actually read) and (try to) write fiction. When it comes to sports, though, I don't know how you do credible analysis and/or commentary without using lots of statistics. And if you're using statistics, you might as well use the right ones.
In your years as a sports journalist, you've written a ton of articles for plenty of different publications (SI.com, ESPN.com, etc.). If you had to choose a story you felt was your best work or just a favorite of yours, which one would it be?
I did a piece that was a Sunday centerpiece (kind of a big deal) for The Star a couple of years ago about the guy who founded the first big-league team in Kansas City back in the 1880s. The research for that was really fun, lots of reading microfilm of 130+ year old newsprint.
The guy -- Americus V. McKim -- was buried in an unmarked grave in a local cemetery. As it happened, the day the story was due, the local SABR chapter installed a marker at his grave and then played catch in the cemetery. It was a great send-off for the piece. Plus, I turned in over 100 inches of copy, expected about a quarter of that to get axed because of space, but they like it so well, the whole thing ran as I'd written it .
Given the wide range of sports (pro football, pro basketball, college basketball, etc.) you currently cover, do you ever feel overwhelmed tackling so many different stories over a period of time?
I have a restless nature. I find it almost possible to relax. So invent things to do even when I am more or less caught up. So, no, I don't find it overwhelming.
At the same time, I have a tendency to accept more work than any human being can be expected to do in a reasonable timeframe. I like to challenge myself.
On paper, the Cleveland Cavaliers are, without a doubt, the best team in the NBA. What type of factors could derail their chances of winning an NBA Title this year?
The first factor would be the Boston Celtics. Not to put too fine a point on it, but the Cavaliers still have to carry their performance over to the postseason. Over a seven-game series, if Boston can pinch off Cleveland's secondary players and LeBron doesn't shoot well, the Celtics could still beat them.
The Cavs have better balance this season, but still nothing like the Celts or the Magic, for that matter. Getting that top seed will be huge, as it always is. Other than that, Cleveland seems to be the complete package. For a while in January, the Cavs led the NBA in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
As a follow-up question, no matter how you slice it statistically (using advanced metrics), there is a clear trio at the top of the NBA standings being grouped together - the Celtics, the Magic, & the Lakers. Between the three, which team do you believe is the best of the bunch? Why?
I'm assuming you're still anointing Cleveland as the top team. After them, and I sound like a mainstreamer here, I still think Boston is the team to beat until proven otherwise.
They had one rough stretch, but now they are back to blowing everybody out. Their win in Orlando last Thursday was really important. After that, I'd go Lakers, then the Magic. The Lakers are really fortunate to be in the West this seasons. It's hard to imagine a scenario where they don't make the finals.
Meanwhile, the 2 and 3 seeds in the East will have a brutal conference semifinals series, only to have turn around and play another great team. It's a fun year. I never want the regular season to go by fast, but I am looking forward to the playoffs.
Which is a more foregone conclusion? LeBron James, MVP .. or .. Dwight Howard, NBA Defensive Player of the Year. Could you explain your reasoning?
I think James was handed the MVP award by the national media about a month ago. My metrics agree that he's clearly the top player this season, so it's hard to make a stink about it.
Howard is a pretty sure bet for the defensive award and deservedly so. We know the voters love shot blockers, or else Marcus Camby wouldn't have won the award a couple of years ago
Back-up PG. It's the hot topic right now that many Magic fans are discussing (namely Anthony Johnson). Do you feel the lack of quality depth behind Jameer Nelson will hurt Orlando come playoff time if GM Otis Smith doesn't make a move to address the problem?
Smith does need to get a younger guy in there. Orlando has lots of shooters, but that doesn't mean you need a guy that can't shoot at all. It shouldn't be hard to upgrade from Johnson and I think there may still be a team out there that he hasn't played for. Sometimes, though, I get the feeling that Otis falls in love a little too much with his roster. Let Redick run the point!
As a follow-up question, let's assume Otis doesn't fix the back-up PG issue. Are there alternative solutions the Magic could explore? Some people within our blog community have suggested playing Hedo Turkoglu more at point-forward, or grant Courney Lee some time at the point. Your thoughts?
I like that idea. Then you could actually let Redick play the theoretical back-up point guard slot. He'd get torched on defense, but you could probably get away with it long enough to give Jameer a breather. Lee doesn't scream 'point guard' at me, but I have no doubt he'd be able to play it better than Johnson at this point.
Hedo & free agency. Many Magic fans are anxious to see whether Turkoglu will opt-out and re-sign with the team, or if he'll opt-out and sign with another team. The latest reports have him seeking a contract ranging around 5 years/$50 million. Do you believe he'll get that money in free agency this off-season? Or will the economy, as well as other teams eyeing the 2010 FA class, affect that factor? What are the Magic's chances of re-training Hedo, when its all said & done?
It'd be awfully risky to opt out in this economic environment, but given the flood that supposed to hit the free-agent market in 2010, this might be the time for him to do it. He's a great fit in Orlando and the Magic can offer him the him the most money if they want to extend him. He should leave well enough alone and work on that. Hedo is a very good player, but I'm not sure he's quite as good as he thinks he is.
That attitude is a good thing sometimes -- he's hit some big shots for Orlando because he actually believes he is supposed to be 'the man." He's having a good, but not great, season and he's not a box office attraction. Of course, if Corey Maggette can get 5 years/$50 million, maybe Hedo can, too. ..."
Kevin Pelton
Kevin "Al" Pelton is a sportswriter who writes for BasketballProspectus.com and has written for 82games.com, Hoopsworld.com and SI.com. Pelton also covers the Seattle Storm for the team's Web site, stormbasketball.com, and formerly covered the Seattle SuperSonics. He has worked to acquaint mainstream basketball fans with statistical analysis, and he moderates the APBRmetrics forum.
"... The Role Player Extraordinaire by Kevin Pelton
For all the praise he earned earlier, Oden wasn't the best post player on the court Friday night. In fact, he wasn't even the best second-year post player out there. Both honors belonged to Memphis center Marc Gasol, who has made amazing strides as a sophomore.
The only centers in the league with higher WARP totals than Gasol through Saturday were Dwight Howard and Oden. Gasol is also one of those three players with a higher True Shooting Percentage than Oden; while the two players were tied for the league lead by shooting an identical 63.3 percent (a rate subsequently improved by Gasol's13-for-18 accuracy Sunday against the L.A. Clippers), Gasol had gotten to the line more frequently as a percentage of his possessions used.
To sum it up: The oft-overlooked younger Gasol brother has become as good a role player as we have in the league. The big difference for Gasol during his second season is improved conditioning. After shedding excess weight over the summer, Gasol is lighter on his feet, which has helped him at both ends.
Gasol has also been the big beneficiary of the addition of Zach Randolph, stepping into a complementary role on offense. That's allowed him to flash his passing skills--he had five assists in Portland, followed by six more in L.A.--and be more selective with his shot attempts. Gasol is making 68.8 percent of his attempts at the rim this season, up from 58.1 percent a year ago.
Gasol's efficiency is the biggest reason that the Grizzlies' offense has been operating so well (at least before collapsing in the fourth quarter of Sunday's loss to the Clippers, when they scored just seven points in losing a 16-point lead). Memphis came into Sunday ranked 15th in the NBA in Offensive Rating, an enormous step forward from last year, when the Grizzlies were 28th.
That part of SCHOENE'S projection, as outlined in our preseason contrast between Memphis and Houston, has proven accurate. It's the Grizzlies' defense that hasn't held up its end of the bargain, ranking ahead of only Toronto in Defensive Rating. The poor defense is why Memphis has struggled in the early going, though with five wins in their last eight games the Grizzlies have demonstrated they can no longer be taken lightly. ..." from Basketball Prospectus: A tale of Three Centers"
Interview With Kevin Pelton
"When you consider what he's accomplished through age 23, he's certainly got a shot, but Chamberlain is going to be pretty difficult to dislodge. The start of Howard's career is fairly similar to that of another all-time great center who just happened to start his career in a Magic uniform, of course."
Kevin Pelton, Basketball Prospectus
"... How long have you been working at Basketball Prospectus?
This is our second season at Basketball Prospectus, and I've been with the site since the start. Last season, I wrote about a column per week during the season.
This year, since I'm no longer working for/covering the Seattle SuperSonics (while continuing to cover the WNBA's Seattle Storm for storm.wnba.com), I've had more time to devote to NBA analysis. That's allowed me to write two or three columns a week as well as contribute to our new Unfiltered blog.
What was it like working at 82games.com & SI.com? Given that 82games.com is a very stat-driven website, was there a direct contrast of styles you had to face at SI.com as a result?
In both cases, I had a lot of freedom as a writer to pretty much address any topic I wanted, so there wasn't any difference imposed on me. That said, I was certainly conscious of the fact that I was writing for a different audience when my work appeared on SI.com, so I went into more detail explaining some of the more advanced statistics I utilized.
I also tended to use SI.com for the bigger stories (especially during the postseason) while saving some of the more esoteric columns for 82games.com. (Now, because BP and SI.com have a content agreement, they're picking some of my columns and those of our other NBA writers to appear on both sites.)
How long have you been moderating the APBRmetrics forum? What type of visitors do you get (I've noticed John Hollinger posts there, among others)? How often do you post?
The APBRmetrics forum is an offshoot of a Yahoo! group that started in 2001. I found it the next year and started posting, which was how I "met" (online) the leaders in the field like Hollinger, Dean Oliver and Dan Rosenbaum who I now consider friends.
At some point, it became clear that Yahoo! did not offer enough functionality, so I put together a true message board on my Web site in late December 2004 and invited everyone to move over.
The great thing about APBRmetrics is the diversity of voices, from the aforementioned pioneers working for teams or writing about the league to fans who are just starting to learn about statistical analysis. You have some people who are experts in math and statistics, and then others with more of a coaching/playing background.
There's a little something for everything. I tend to post less often than I did a few years ago, partially because a lot of my thought is directed toward my columns now, but a few times a week at least.
Are the Orlando Magic, as currently constructed, capable of winning an NBA Title this season? If yes, why? If no, why not?
I would say yes. To win a title, generally a team needs to either be very good at both ends of the floor or elite at one end and at least adequate on the other. Third in the league in Defensive Rating (as part of a trio of teams, along with Boston and Cleveland, that has separated themselves from everyone else in the league) and in the league's top 10 in Offensive Rating, the Magic qualifies under the latter criterion.
Orlando is outscoring opponents by 8.4 points per game, which is basically as good as any champion team since the 1996-97 Chicago Bulls (the best since then was the 1999-00 Lakers, at +8.5). I don't see any reason to say this team could not win a championship.
To follow up on the previous question, do you believe Orlando will win a championship in the next five years?
I'm going to say no, not necessarily as any indictment of the Magic but more because I don't think I would answer yes for anyone in the league save the Lakers, Cleveland and Boston. Odds are one of those teams will win multiple championships, so there's not going to be a lot to go around for the rest of the league.
The more interesting angle might be which team you would put fourth in terms of chances of winning a championship in the next five years after the top three. That would basically mean picking amongst Houston, New Orleans, New York (the 2010 factor), Orlando, Portland and Utah, and I'd probably put the Magic tops in that group.
The caveat is that in the future Orlando will need to get improvement from Dwight Howard or to upgrade the core to offset the aging of Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu (assuming Turkoglu is re-signed in the offseason).
It's been no secret that Anthony Johnson has been a weak link in the chain so far this season for the Magic. So has Keith Bogans, but the team has been able to mask his play with their depth at two-guard.Is Johnson's poor numbers strictly due to his age? Or are there other factors involved?
If by other factors you mean he wasn't all that good in the first place. … No, Johnson had a very nice run as a backup point guard in Indiana, but guys like that don't tend to age very well, and Johnson is no exception to that trend.
To follow up on the previous question,who do you feel would be an appropriate back-up PG for Orlando? Do the Magic have the resources to trade for this player?
It's a tough fit, because you've only got about 15 minutes a night available behind Nelson and the depth at shooting guard makes it unlikely you'll see a lot of two-point lineups. Earl Watson would be a guy who would be an upgrade, but he would be unhappy with that role and makes too much money to put in such a limited role. Kyle Lowry would make more sense if he could somehow be pried away from the Grizzlies ( maybe they'd have better luck luring Fran Vazquez to the U.S. with Marc Gasol on the roster and would be interested in his rights? No? OK ).
C.J. Watson, as discussed lately, makes sense. One wild-card option would be Ronnie Price of Utah, who has put up solid numbers in limited minutes over the course of his career and is out of the rotation when the Jazz is healthy (which is never, this season).
Given your recent article on Basketball Prospectus discussing the merits of who is the best point guard in the East and the fact that you ranked Jameer Nelson third behind Devin Harris & Rajon Rando,I'd like to know where you would rank Nelson overall among the floor generals in the NBA?
Naturally, part of the reason that column is interesting is that the best point guards in the league are generally in the West. I don't envy coaches who have to decide who's going to make the All-Star team at the point out West. You have a few tiers of point guards:
Chris Paul~ Chauncey Billups ~ Tony Parker ~ Deron Williams ~ Devin Harris ~ Steve Nash (I know, this feels like blasphemy, but …) ~ Rajon Rondo ~ Jose Calderon ~ Baron Davis ~ Jason Kidd and Jameer Nelson.
Out of that last tier, I would probably have Nelson at the top right now, so that would put him eighth in the league. The point worth noting is that we are in a golden age of NBA point guards right now.
I just named 11 point guards amongst the league's best and did not even get to Mike Bibby, Andre Miller, Derrick Rose, Rodney Stuckey or Mo Williams.
With the uncertainty surrounding Hedo Turkoglu's future with Orlando after this season,what players out there could the Magic pursue that could equate Turkoglu's production without sacrificing the team's excellent chemistry?
At a quick glance, I'm not seeing a ton of guys that would make sense. The best fit might be a player Magic fans are certainly familiar with - Mike Miller. In terms of guys who can score and handle the ball, he's a pretty close match for Turkoglu. Alas, for some reason Miller has decided to stop shooting the ball this year, which has hurt his value.
Travis Outlaw is going to be a free agent and offers athleticism and wing shooting with the ability to play some power forward. He doesn't handle it well, though you could give more ballhandling duties to Nelson. As far as the trade route, John Salmons would be a decent fit if the Kings decided Donte Greene was ready for a larger role. Overall, it's going to be hard to replace Turkoglu next summer, so unless the Magic is really convinced he's out the door and moves him now, re-signing him looks like the best option.
Does Dwight Howard have the potential to go down as the greatest center of all-time? Or will that title stick with (presumably) Wilt Chamberlain?
When you consider what he's accomplished through age 23, he's certainly got a shot, but Chamberlain is going to be pretty difficult to dislodge. The start of Howard's career is fairly similar to that of another all-time great center who just happened to start his career in a Magic uniform, of course.
Many Magic fans expect the team to have two All-Stars represented this year in Phoenix. Apart from Dwight, both Jameer Nelson & Rashard Lewis have popped up as possible sidekicks to accompany Superman to the desert. It's becoming increasingly clear that Nelson (the more deserving player) may get snubbed due to the fact he has to compete with a number of guards for a reserve spot. Since Lewis doesn't have that problem as a forward, it's looking like he may be the more realistic choice to be a reserve.With all that said, is he deserving of the honor?
Yes. I actually have Lewis and Nelson nearly identical in terms of overall value when you account for the fact that Lewis has played 350 (and change) more minutes this season.
If I was picking my roster today, I don't think I would have either player, but they're both certainly very much in the range of deserving candidates -- probably next in line in the frontcourt and the backcourt in my mind. In real life, Ray Allen will probably be ahead of Nelson, which is why Lewis has the easier path to the All-Star Game. ..." The Interviews are from Third Quarter Collapse
• Actors: Bradford Doolittle and Kevin Pelton
• Region: All Regions • Format: Paperback, 370 pages
• Language: English •
Publisher: CreateSpace
• Book Release Date: October 14, 2009
• Book Dimensions: 8.9 x 7.3 x 0.7 inches
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