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EXPECTED WINS: How to Calculate ?

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Uploaded:
29/12/05

A selection of the best questions of the Ask the eBA Team Stats which are analyzed and discussed from every point of view, and by each one of the experts of the eBA Stats.com.
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* Expected Wins: How to Calculate ?

George

Posted: Jul 11 2005, 06:29 PM

Unregistered

This topic is resumed: see below.

How are Expected Wins calculated? Is there any article in eBA Stats about this topic ?

Traduccion & Enlaces: ebastats - el foro de las estadisticas del baloncesto

trezeguet

Posted: Jul 25 2005, 10:37 AM

Member

Group: Members
Posts: 27
Member No.: 36
Joined: 26-February 03

Expected Wins are calculated using a logistics regression model. The functional form of the model is:

log(WPct / (1 - WPct)) = ?1*log(Team Points Scored/ Team Points Allowed)

Reference: WPct = Team Winning Percentage

The estimated value of ?1 is approximately 14. Substituting into the formula above and solving for WPct yields:

......................exp(14*log(Team Points Scored/ Team Points Allowed)
expWPct = --------------------------------------------------------------------------
................... + exp(14*log(Team Points Scored/ Team Points Allowed)

which simplifies to:

....................................(Team Points Scored^14
expWPct = -----------------------------------------------------------------
..................(Team Points Scored^14 + Team Points Allowed^14

Expected Wins are then calculated based on the team's Expected Winning Percentage. Using this formula for all BAA, NBA and ABA seasons, the root mean-square error (rmse) is 3.14 wins. Using an exponent of 16.5, the rmse is 3.48 wins.

Jean Louis Trezeguet - eBA Stats Team - The basketball Statistics Analysis

pablo bahia

Posted: Aug 31 2005, 01:51 PM

Unregistered

para la NBA, hay una forma más simple (there's a more simple way to calculate it):

((ppg-opponent ppg) * 2.7) + 41 (la mitad de los partidos jugados. Half of the games played).

Estos son los resultados para la temporada 2004-2005 (these are the 2004-2005 expected wins):

ATL 15
BOS 43
CHA 25
CHI 44
CLE 43
DAL 56
DEN 46
DET 51
GSW 35
HOU 52
IND 43
LAC 39
LAL 33
MEM 47

MIA 59
MIL 33
MIN 45
NJN 37
NOH 22
NYK 35
ORL 35
PHI 39
PHO 60
POR 30
SAC 47
SAS 62
SEA 47
TOR 36
UTA 29
WAS 40

sebast

Posted: Dec 29 2005, 01:19 PM

Member

Group: Members
Posts: 11
Member No.: 22
Joined: 21-February 03

This message RESUME the topic

Commentary: The probabilities could be estimated by using information on teams' performances in the previously played games. By example, if in the first 2/3 total games played of the season, Team A's winning percentage was .582, we could use .582 as the probability of winning each game. However, in the NBA there is a significant difference between winning percents for home games and for games on the road. See Home & Road Stats: friendly stats-man Discussion at the Forum. Another reference to this calculation, the quality of the opponent would raise or lower that Winning Percentage probability.

What is the Pace Factor ?: Is an estimate of the number of possessions per 40 or 48 minutes by a team and its opponents. The formula is:

........................( 0.44* total FTA ) + total FGA + total TO - total ORB
Pace= 48 or 40 * ____________________________________________________
........................................................2 * tmMP

References: "total" includes "our team + opponents".

What are the Offensive and Defensive Efficiency ?:
Offensive Efficiency is an estimate of the number of points scored per 100 possessions. It is calculated as follows:

....................................................POINTS
Offense = ..100 * _______________________________________________
.........................tm FGA - tm ORB + tm TO + 0.44*tm FTA

Defensive Efficiency is an estimate of the number of points allowed per 100 possessions. It is calculated as follows:

.................................................opp POINTS
Defense = ...100 * ___________________________________________________
.........................opp FGA - oppORB + opp TO + 0.44*opp FTA

This summary resumes this topic and will be completed at the "Statistics" chapter of the eBA basketball Statistics Analysis System. Another basketball statistics topics you'll find at the basketball Statistics Discussions section of our eBA Stats.com site.

Mario Sebastiani - eBA Stats Team - Analisis de las Estadisticas del Baloncesto

To see the other resumed topics about Basketball Stats return to Q & A about Basketball Statistics.

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