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Raymond Cheong designed a computer ranking system (CRS) - see
it at www.bme.jhu.edu/ - to predict the outcome of a
hypothetical matchup between two Basketball teams. The CRS relies on the observation that
average score margin is highly correlated to the ability to win, but that average score
margin can be adjusted for strength of schedule and random variations in day-to-day
ability. The CRS gives the expected score difference in a hypothetical matchup, and
assuming Gaussian variation in day-to-day ability, gives a closed formula for the
probability one team will defeat another.
This system could be easily adjusted for other sports, but is particularly suited for NCAA
Division I men’s Basketball because of the large number of games played and the
finely graded scores. The two-thirds winning record of home teams is often cited as
evidence that a home court advantage exists. However, the HCA controlled for differences
in home and away team abilities is zero. This is partially accounted for by the trend that
strong teams invite weak teams in the first half of the season to warm up for conference
play. On the other hand, the HCA calculated from paired home-away games is 3-4 points,
suggesting the HCA is real. Raymond Cheong currently do not have a satisfying explanation
for the discrepancies between these analyses. On balance, this evidence neither confirms
nor denies that the HCA exists, but at minimum that if an HCA is included in a CRS the way
it is calculated must be carefully evaluated - see www.bme.jhu.edu/
-.
This summary
resumes this topic and will be completed at "The Game" chapter of the eBA Basketball
Statistics Analysis System. Another Basketball game topics
you'll find at
the Basketball Game
Discussions section of our eBA Stats.com
site.
John Volger - ebastats -
the Basketball statistics forum
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Wins: How to Calculate them? - 29/12/05
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