Which is the real question:
- we are trying to
compare
the playoffs numbers with the regular season numbers ...
- we are trying to analyze the effect of
playing the same opponent for many consecutive games ... or
- we are trying to
analyze points per possession ?
After the regular season, playoffs time, the fatigue have an effect upon
shooting more than any other stat and
effective
shooting % moves downward and lower.
The
best players on both teams play more minutes and marginal players
disappear in
essence
either in effectiveness or actual court appearance.
A determinate playoffs series
may have differences with the regular season or from series to series,
no not differences at all. Two determinate high-scoring teams
may
give an enlarged production at all the statistics categories, but
the
possession value does not have direct relation with any
"playoffs
conversion" rate.
It is possible to apply during the playoff the following experimental formula:
Total Points
Shooting Efficiency=
--------------------------------------------
{ FGA + ( ( FTA + Bonus FTA ) / 2 }
Rates or efficiencies should be calculated for each series, and
weighted differently as the playoff round progress. An equation must be based on the players who are
analyzed against the
opposition and are only considered in the context of that one series.
Resuming this topic and according to eBA archives of 10
past years in the playoffs series, for the finals players tend to do worse than their regular season production/efficiency and rates tend to be around
91.4 % of what they were in the regular season, with conversion rates of 98%, 96%, 94% and 92% which could be alternatively
applied for each of 4 rounds of playoffs.
Mario Sebastiani - ebastats
- the Basketball statistics forum